Reading the outlier multiplier
What that 8.4x number means, how Eden calculates it, and why it is more useful than raw view counts when you are looking for posts to remix.
The outlier multiplier is the most important number in Eden. Once you know how to read it, the Discover feed turns from interesting into useful.
You see it on every post in Discover, on creator profiles, and on saved items inside boards. It looks like 8.4x next to the post. This article covers what that number is, what it isn't, and how to use it.
What it is
The outlier multiplier compares one post to that creator's own typical performance. An 8.4x post landed roughly 8.4 times the metric that creator usually lands.
The metric we compare depends on the platform:
- YouTube: views vs the channel's median
- TikTok: views vs the creator's median
- X: likes vs the account's median
- Instagram: views on Reels, likes on Posts, each scored against their own baseline
- LinkedIn: likes plus comments vs the account's median
- Substack: likes vs the publication's median (on both articles and notes)
We use the median, not the mean, because creators have a small number of huge posts that would skew an average. The median represents the post the creator typically lands.
Why this beats raw view counts
A 50,000 view post on a channel where typical posts get 1,000,000 views is a flop for that creator. A 50,000 view post on a channel where typical posts get 5,000 views is a once-in-a-quarter event.
If you sort Discover by raw views, you mostly find big creators. If you sort by outlier multiplier, you find posts that broke through, regardless of audience size. Those are the posts worth studying because they did something the creator's normal posts did not.
For a creator looking to remix what works, the second list is more useful.
How Eden calculates it
Eden re-runs this calculation every time it pulls fresh data for a creator:
- 01
Define the recent window
The comparison set is the larger of: every post in the last 7 days, or the creator's last 30 posts of that format. The "format" part matters on Instagram, where reels and feed posts are scored against their own baselines because they live on completely different numerical scales.
- 02
Take the median of that window
Median rather than mean, for the reason above.
- 03
Divide each post's metric by that median
The result is the multiplier for that post. A post equal to the median is 1x. Twice the median is 2x. And so on.
- 04
Adjust for post age
A post six hours old has not had time to accumulate its full reach. Eden projects very young posts forward to their likely lifetime metric before scoring them, so a video published this morning can still earn a real multiplier rather than looking like a flop.
- 05
Adjust for audience growth
For creators whose follower count has grown a lot over the recent window, Eden compares engagement rate rather than raw counts. Without this, today's typical post on a now-big channel can read as a giant outlier against older posts from when the channel was small.
- 06
Refresh as new data arrives
Each time we re-pull a creator's recent posts, the median is recomputed. A post that was 8x last week might be 6x this week if the creator had several other strong posts in the meantime.
A few practical edges:
- If a creator has very little posting history, the multiplier is held off until there is enough data to score against.
- On Instagram, reels and feed posts are tracked as separate formats with separate baselines. A creator's reels do not skew the score on their carousels, and vice versa.
What it does not measure
The multiplier tells you a post over-performed for that creator. It does not tell you:
- Whether the post is good. Some 10x posts are 10x because they are clickbait. Read the post, do not trust the number alone.
- Whether the format will work for you. A 12x cooking video is not a template for a 12x productivity video.
- Whether the topic is timely. A post that hit 9x in 2024 might land at 1x today.
Use the multiplier to find candidates. Use your own judgement to decide which candidates to study and remix.
How to use it in practice
A workflow that works for most creators:
- Open Discover, filter to your platform and topic, sort by outlier multiplier (the default).
- Scan for posts at 5x and above.
- For each one, ask: what did this post do that the creator's other posts did not? The hook? The format? The topic? The thumbnail?
- Save the ones with a clear answer onto a board.
- When you sit down to draft your next post, open that board next to it.
The multiplier gets you to candidates fast. The remixing is up to you.
Email us. A real person reads every message.
Tell us what you tried and where you got stuck. We answer within one business day.
[email protected]